Tharun's Blog

 The push for EV's is not only limited to environment related impacts, but mainly also on economical and political ecosystem on crude. Today, almost all countries except a few import majority of the crude, which is their primary import.  If EV's replace ICE combustion if atleast by 60% in the next 10 years that will be a major change to this ecosystem, based on the battery raw material requirements that the vehicles depend, today much of it depends on lithium ion. Also, most countries are self reliant on electricity. Hence the transition to EV's is not only limited to environment related but far more consequences, so the transition will be closely controlled by entities that dominate Crude.

 Recently the results of the GDP growth for the period of Q1 FY23 (April to June, 2022) was released where we have witnessed an astonishing growth of 13.5% from the previous year.  It is important to the previous 2 Q1 results  April to June, 2021 was 20.8% growth which was the 2nd wave time and April to June, 2020 was -24% which was the total lockdown time. Why is this comparison required, is to understand the real numbers. So a small illustration with a base of 100 in April to June, 2019 period to till date. April to June, 2019 = 100 April to June, 2020 = 76(-24%) April to June, 2021 = 91.58(+20.5%) April to June, 2022 = 103.94(+13.5%) So effectively if we compare the Q1 of April to June 2019 the prepandemic levels to this Q1 it is effectively 4%.  It is imperative for us to achieve a higher growth since we have a greater potential to do so, it is always important to be optimistic but a layer of realism is needed. Because illusions are dangerous than ignorance....

 கடந்த சில காலமாக நாம் அரசியல் சார்ந்த பதிவுகளை போடுவதில்லை, கிருஷ்ணாஜியின் தாக்கத்தால், ஏனெனில் அரசியல் ஒரு எல்லைக்கு மேல் மக்களை பிரித்து ஆளவே பயன்படுகிறது ஒவ்வொரு இயக்கத்தாலும் தங்களுக்கு ஏற்றாற் போல். வலது என்றால் இடது முளைக்கும், இடது என்றால் வலது முளைக்கும். மனிதர்கள் முழுமையாக ஒன்றினைய அனைத்து அடையாளங்களையும் துறந்தால் மட்டுமே சாத்தியம். இருப்பினும் 75வது சுதந்திர தினத்தின் நினைவாக பெரும் பகுதியினரிடம் இருந்து மறைக்கப்பட்ட, மறக்கடிக்கப்பட்ட  ஒரு பிரதமருக்கான நன்றியுரையாக இப்பதிவினை தொடர்கிறோம். இவருக்கு முன்னால் இரண்டு ஆண்டுகளில் இரண்டு ஆட்சிகள், இவருக்கு பின்னால் நான்காண்டுகளில் நான்கு ஆட்சிகள், நடுவில் இவருடைய ஐந்தாண்டு ஆட்சி. இது அந்த காலகட்டத்தில் இருந்த நிலையற்ற அரசியல் தன்மையையும், அவரின் அரசியல் சாதுர்யத்தையும் காட்டுகின்றது. இவர் பிரதமராக பதவி ஏற்ற போது இன்று ஏறக்குறைய இலங்கையில் இருக்கும் பொருளாதார சூழல் போன்றது, நாடு அன்று மிகவும் நெருக்கமாக இருந்த சோவியத் யூனியன் விழுந்த தருணம், வளைகுடா யுத்தம் காரணமாக கச்சா எண்ணெய் விலை உயர்வால் பணவீக்கம், கட்சியின் தலைவர் த...

 At times economy and finance are seen as the same entity. But feel, Finance is a more technical and measurable entity that is tangible like with clear definitions and accountability for cash flows, liquidity, balance sheet etc.  But whereas the economy is more of a psychology-related phenomenon driven by sentiment though it was given some form of statistics and analytics in the 20th century to bring about measurement on it like the GDP, inflation and other micros etc. Still, the behavioural branch of economics which seems to be relevant clearly portrays it as an intangible movement driven by some external factors like the macros etc. Certain indicators from the economy models can be used as a trigger to nudge some moves, but the results need not be accurate as in the case of financial forecasts and measurements.  In conclusion, it is the movement of an intangible economy that determines the financial results.

GDP has become a common notion in understanding a country's economic growth. Also, there are certain measuring factions within GDP itself, nominal (constant prices, not adjusted for inflation) and real (current prices, adjusted for inflation). Does GDP in the actual representation of the economic prosperity of the citizens? We will try to look at this with one more level of measure.  GDP per capita, which is calculated by dividing the GDP by the population, might indicate the economic prosperity of the citizens but still not accurate. Let us see an illustration for certain countries, considering the GDP, population and GDP per capita adjusted for international prices in real terms to provide a level playing field given the different living conditions and prices in different countries. Let us see this example for the countries USA, France, China, Japan and India are as follows in USD.   Country  GDP (PPP) (in million)  Population (in Cr) GDP per capita (PPP) USA...

      Often economical and financial factors and reforms take time to show results,  we have seen it through India's economical change initiated in 1991, which showed results mostly from 2002 to 2008,  as constantly it was backed up with solid actions,  though there was average economic growth of 7 or 7.5% till 2018, it was significantly due to the trade liberalisation policies, license raj dismantling, economic modernisation of 1991, dream budget of 1997 paving for the surge of IT development and massive urban and local infrastructure boost between 1999 to 2003 like the initiation of Golden  Quadrilateral  connecting Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai and some consistent minor reforms this consistent growth was possible. In between, we had some good welfare schemes as well such as the expansion of the midday meal scheme in 1995, MGNREGA  in 2005 etc. We are not going to go into the details of those in this article, we are just indicating th...

1) Incentivising organic farming: Ensuring that at least 100 villages per state are made organic completely every year and accelerate it each year. 2) Increase spending on R&D : For any country to be self-reliant in the long run, its R&D stands as an important factor.  3) Cut excise, cess, etc., taxes on fuel : Fuel is an integral part of the economy. Starting from the farming cycle, fuel plays a key role, a farmer uses a tractor during harvesting/farming then takes the produces to the nearest storehouse. The carrying vehicles need fuel and from there to various markets at long distances, the lorries that transport need fuel. And the end-user who buys these products needs fuel to drive to the markets. So at every stage from input to output, the increased fuel price eventually results in higher inflation. Instead, if the excessive tax on fuel is cut, people have more money at hand leading to increased spending on other commodities, which can result in higher revenue for the ...

The nominations are open for the Padma awards for 2021. This would mark the 30th year of Economic reforms. It would be great if the government awards Bharat Ratna to the former PM, PV Narasimha Rao, one of the most underspoken PM. Consciously feel if not for the economic reforms of liberalisation in 1991 reducing monopoly, implemented through by then Finance minster Dr.Manmohan Singh and effective economists and bureaucrats then, most of the 80's and 90's kids wouldn't have a sophisticated life today and almost 20 crore people are lifted out of poverty in the 30 years. But it was equally important to credit the then Prime minister PV Narasimha Rao, for his political direction and craft, disguising the change as a continuity, to get the consensus. Though the manufacturing, agriculture and educational reforms were left behind, which we are still looking to reform. But India took away with services sector. Some interesting facts, PV Narasimha Rao announced the retirem...

Labour .... Law ....Reforms in India .. for the 21st Century Recently the state governments of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat have announced that they will be intermittently suspending most of the labour laws which were enacted in 1946 to stimulate the growth of manufacturing. This proposal is still waiting with the union government's approval as these laws are in the concurrent list, between the state and centre. Let us examine the journey of the labour laws and the growth over the years from a common man perspective, The Journey : So what do these laws mean for the employer, employee and India's manufacturing capabilities? Were they hurdles? In this post we are going to examine only the essence of labour laws and not land laws which will be a separate subject. For an employer, it was cited by many that for a capital intensive business such as the manufacturing, these laws enacted that, for a firm with a size of more than 10 employees, even during ...

What comes into our mind when we first hear the word 'India'? Diversity? More than 1000 year old monuments? A land of wisdom? Crowded places? The skyscrapers, fast highways may come as the last pictures in one's memory. India has always been a great place for pilgrimages wherein people come in the quest to understand the true meaning of the life that has been given to them. People of India come from the ethnicity of saving and trying to live a life with contentment. But this contentment has been slowly fading in the age of consumerism. Let us see the journey of India economy and its chances of blooming in the future. The Journey: Years 1947 to 1990 :  After Independence, India had adapted the socialist and protectionist principles mainly assuming that adapting capitalism would be letting something similar to East Indian Company through the back door after attaining independence. So the state was keen to keep all the powers and licenses of businesses under its co...

For a layman like me the choosing between the left, right and center of politics and economics has been a paradox. In the recent times, when observing to the global economics I began to get a sense that there is no one idea that can thrive throughout the world. Luckily, when I got to listen to the recent interviews of one of the Noble Laureate for economics 2019 'Abhijit Banerjee' who was objective in sharing his views on issues based on their complexity, some thoughts crossed over my mind which I am sharing here. It is always easy to term a person or a group's view as left, right or center in stillness. When we consider the political or economic issues in motion, the left, right or center of it varies dynamically. So a person can be leftist on one issue, centrist on the other and rightist on another. When the policy makers believe that they are in motion and not static, they can invariably choose their options based on the dynamics of the situation. Especially, fo...